Are US assertions enough to contain the brewing middle-east crisis?
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel today "to push Israel to implement "humanitarian pauses" in Gaza" according to a senior administration official. This will be Blinken's second trip to the middleeast within the span of a month. Over 9000 people have died in Gaza so far as a result of IDF's operations, which began after an attack by Hamas in which 1,400 people were killed in Israel.
On my way to Tel Aviv for more diplomacy during an incredibly challenging time. We will continue to work with regional leaders to protect civilians and prevent the spread of conflict. We remain focused on two states and broader peace and security in the region. pic.twitter.com/V4wkXQXy6U
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) November 2, 2023
It might not be a coincidence that this visit is planned on the same day as a scheduled speech by Hasan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader. Nasrallah's speech is expected to give an indication as to whether Hezbollah intends to escalate its attacks on Israel. If the well-armed Hezbollah decides to wade into the conflict, the Hamas-Hezbollah coalition will be a significant opposition for Israel to handle alone. It might also cause Iran and Syria, which have not been directly involved so far, to re-think. The on-going conflict in Ukraine has seen the US bonds with their Arab allies tested to the maximum, and may still be significant apprehensions regarding the US actions in the middle-east. The Joe Biden, the US president had indicated a couple of weeks ago that US can handle a multi-front war, however Russia in Ukraine, the Arabs in the middleast and the Chinese in South China Sea might be biting off a bit too much, even for the "the most powerful nation in the history of the world".
"Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same time?" Scott Pelley asks President Biden.
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) October 15, 2023
60 Minutes, tonight. https://t.co/mEN4CWeXMW pic.twitter.com/b3FC9yQiVE
There have been a number of voices which have called for a pause in Israel's operations. Joe Biden said for the first time that he was in favour of a pause in fighting to allow aid to reach Gaza. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism, said "It's time for Israel's friends to recognize that the current operational approach is causing an unacceptable level of civilian harm"
The deluge of pro-Palestine demonstrations across parts of the world has been an eye-opener for the US administration, which has historically taken a silent approach to Palestine. The protests also seem to have perforated the academic institutions as was seen New York last Wednesday when tens of students staged a walk-out from a class taught by Hillary Clinton as protest for Columbia University's role in shaming of pro-Palestine demostrators.
Whatever is the outcome of this tug-off war between differing views in the US, Israel has shown no signs of relenting so far. There is hope that Blinken's trip will provide much needed respite from hostilities. However, it is more than likely that Israel will push this offensive and cause as much damage to Hamas's resources as possible before either a ceasefire is stuck or a chances of a wider conflict causes US to force Israel's hand and bring the conflict to an end.